What would a vote to
leave the European Union mean for homeowners and those
trying to get on the ladder?
As outlined below, many economists and politicians believe house
prices will slump should Britain vote to leave the EU, driven
lower by falling demand. At the same time, it is argued that the
shortage of housing in the country won't improve because a Brexit
will sap investment into new homes
and curb immigration of much-needed skilled workers into
the construction sector.
However, the big caveat to bear in mind, whatever side of
the fence you stand on, is that these figures are
based on big assumptions. No one actually knows what will
happen. Forecasters, from the Treasury to the IMF, very often get
their figures wrong. Moreover, statistics can be manipulated.
Prices in the property market are really based on confidence, and
that is something that cannot be easily predicted by
Several figures have been bandied around by various politicians
and commentators. George Osborne, the
Chancellor, warned that house prices could
fall by 10pc to as much as 18pc by 2018 in the event
that the British people vote to leave the
EU. However, the calculation used to determine the
rate of decline is based on today's house prices, rather than
prices in two years' time, which are forecast to be about 10pc
higher than they are today. If you account for that, the worst-case
Brexit scenario would be an 8pc decline in prices, according to the
Whatever the result on Thursday it remains a bull market
for selling and many buyers are taking advantage of historically
low interest rates and competitive mortgage deals to secure
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