Some movers wait for Boxing Day bounce..
The number of sales being agreed is up by 22% compared with this time last year, while the number of new buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale is up by 13%. This momentum is a good sign for another Boxing Day activity bounce. The prospect of last year’s bounce encouraged a record number of Boxing Day sellers to launch their properties onto the market in 2023. The resulting surge in fresh choice creates a virtuous circle of market activity, attracting potential New Year buyers – last year, buyer demand jumped by 273% between the Christmas Day lull and Boxing Day.
However, despite the positive aspects of the 2024 market, the looming stamp duty deadline in England is a potential dampener for some in 2025, and Rightmove’s real-time data is capturing the impact on different groups of movers. The latest snapshot identifies signs that sellers of smaller properties in higher-priced areas are trying to trade up or just sell before the deadline to avoid the higher stamp duty charges, despite now needing to act very quickly. In the last four weeks, the number of sellers of typical first-time buyer homes with two bedrooms or fewer in London coming to market is up by 20%, the most of any regional market sector. In second place is the South East at +16%, which is also the second most expensive region. Meanwhile, prices are holding up most strongly for first-time-buyer type properties in more affordable areas, which are set to be less affected by the stamp duty changes, as most first-time-buyer homes are well under the resuming £300,000 tax threshold. Prices for typical first-time-buyer homes in the North East are up by 1.0% this month, starkly contrasting this month’s national 1.7% fall across all property types.
While there are positive signs for the 2025 market, and meaningful mortgage rate falls would be a big boost to consumer confidence and pockets, there is still caution over how next year may play out.
“Looking at our data and the UK’s underlying housing needs, there are lots of reasons to be positive about next year. However, as we’ve seen several times this year, the market is sensitive to unexpected events and the direction of travel can change. The stamp duty changes are a cloud over the market at the moment, with some groups much more impacted than others, and therefore keen to avoid the additional charges. After the important first three months of the year in 2025, a lot depends on how quickly normal activity is resumed with higher stamp duty in England. A Bank Rate cut and some mortgage rate falls early on in the year would help to settle the market and provide a boost to sentiment and consumer confidence.”
Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science.
Eddie – Tuesday 17th December 2024. (Image of JP & Brimelow marketing).
